Research on China’s Sustainable Economic Development and Peak Carbon Achievement Issues—Expanded Solow-based Modeling Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53469/jssh.2025.7(02).09Keywords:
Peak carbon, Economic sustainability, Solow modelingAbstract
China’s early achievement of carbon peaking is systematic and pioneering, driving energy and economic transformation and upgrading as well as high-quality development under goal-oriented frameworks. Therefore, based on an extended Solow model, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are incorporated into the model for empirical analysis to explore the relationship between carbon peaking and China’s sustainable economic development. The study reveals that the elasticity of energy consumption to economic growth is relatively significant, while carbon dioxide acts as a “negative input” to economic growth, with a significantly negative elasticity. The carbon peaking target will accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the economic development model, continuously enhancing China’s capacity for sustainable economic development. Based on the empirical analysis results, recommendations are proposed, including accelerating the optimization of the energy consumption structure and leveraging the supportive role of technological innovation; vigorously promoting energy conservation and emission reduction strategies and improving the institutional framework for low-carbon development; fostering low-consumption and environmentally friendly production methods and restructuring the economic framework towards low-carbon practices; and gradually refining the carbon trading market mechanism to advance the construction and operation of the carbon market.
References
Fergus Green and Nicholas Stem. China’s changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions [J]. Climate Policy,2017,17(4):423-442.
Michel den Elzen et al. Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030:Can emissions peak before 2030?[J].Energy Policy, 2016, 89:224-236.
YiWang and Le-Le Zou. The economic impact of emission peaking conrol policies and China’s sustainable development [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014,5(4):162-168.
Zhuang Guiyang, Wang Sibo. Chinese modernization under the “dual carbon” goal: characteristics, requirements and paths [J]. Ecological Economy, 2023, 39(01): 31-35
Wang Wenju, Kong Xiaoxu. China’s provincial goals, policy tools and path selection for carbon peak in 2030 [J]. Social Science Front, 2022(11): 78-88.
Yu Dengke, Jie Peipei, Gao Xiang. Research on the impact of industrial structure optimization on regional green development under the “dual carbon” goal [J]. Innovation Science and Technology, 2022, 22(09): 50-59. DOI: 10.19345/j.cxkj.1671-0037.2022.9.005.
Wang Huijuan, Lan Zongmin. Construction, measurement and evaluation of China’s urban sustainable development index system [J]. Commercial Economic Research, 2022(07): 184-188
Liu Junchen. Opportunities and challenges brought by achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality to the economy and society [J]. China Business Review, 2022(22): 5-7. DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2022.22.005.
Tang Qi. The impact of the development of the circulation industry on my country's economic growth under the "dual carbon" goal [J]. Commercial Economic Research, 2022(24):18-22
Huang Zhen, Xie Xiaomin, Zhang Tingting. Research on my country's medium- and long-term energy demand forecast and transformation path under the background of "dual carbon" [J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering Science, 2022,24(06):8-18.
Zhang Cheng, Zheng Yujie, Ling Hong. China's "dual carbon" goals and practices: formation logic, practical challenges, social risks and promotion paths [J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition), 2022, 24(06): 78-87+131.
He Yu, Tian Jiexin, Chen Zhenzhen. Research on the efficiency of green development of Chinese cities under the background of carbon neutrality [J]. Ecological Economy, 2022, 38(07): 92-98.
Kuang Lichun, Zou Caineng, Huang Weihe, Yu Jianning, Huang Haixia. China's energy demand forecast and transformation development trend under the vision of carbon peak and carbon neutrality [J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2022, 41(01): 9-17.
Huang Sheng, Wang Jingyu, Guo Pei, Li Zhenyu. Short-term strategies and long-term prospects for optimizing energy structure under the goal of carbon neutrality [J]. Chemical Industry Progress, 2022, 41(11): 5695-5708. DOI: 10.16085/jissn.1000-6613. 2022-1209.
Li Xin'an, Li Hui. Research on improving the quality of China's economic development towards the dual carbon goals [J]. Journal of Henan Institute of Science and Technology, 2022, 42(05): 1-11.
Mao Yalin. Research on medium- and short-term forecasts of China's energy under the background of carbon neutrality [J]. Technology Economy, 2021, 40(08): 107-115.
Liu Wenjun, Zhang Lifang. Research on the impact mechanism of green certificate trading market and carbon emission rights trading market on the power market [J]. Ecological Economy, 2021, 37(10): 21-31.
Yang Chaoyue. A brief discussion on low-carbon economy and sustainable development[J]. China Economic and Trade Guide, 2021(24):60-61.[23] Zhang Fang. Research on the economic and environmental effects of China's regional carbon emission trading mechanism[J]. Macroeconomic Research, 2021(09):111-124.DOI:10.16304/j.cnki.11-3952/f.2021.09.010.
Lu Chuanyi, Chen Wenying. China's early carbon peak scenario and its macroeconomic impact[J]. Environmental Economic Research, 2021, 6(01): 10-30+200. DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2021.01.002.
Fu Hua, Li Guoping, Zhu Ting. Carbon emissions in China's manufacturing industry: industry differences and driving factors[J]. Reform, 2021(05):38-52
Guo Chaoxian. Carbon neutrality in 2060 leads to fundamental changes in China's economic system[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2021, 21(05): 64-77.
He Jiankun. Low-carbon transformation of energy and economy under the guidance of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals[J]. Environmental Economics Research, 2021, 6(01): 1-9. DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2021.01.001
Mo Jianlei, Duan Hongbo, Fan Ying, Wang Shouyang. my country's energy and climate policy goals in the Paris Agreement: comprehensive assessment and policy choices [J]. Economic Research, 2018, 53(09): 168-181.
Wang Yong, Wang Endong, Bi Ying. The impact of carbon emission peak on China's economy under different scenarios - an analysis based on CGE model [J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(10): 1896-1908.
Liu Bowen, Zhang Xian, Yang Lin. Research on regional industrial carbon emission decoupling efforts based on LMDI [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2018, 28(04): 78-86.
Dong Feng, Yang Qingliang, Long Ruyin, Cheng Shuobo. Decomposition and dynamic simulation of China's carbon emissions [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015, 25(04): 1-8.
Zhuang Guiyang. Analysis of the path and potential of low-carbon development of China's economy [J]. International Technical and Economic Research, 2005(03):8-12
Zhang Jun, Wu Guiying, Zhang Jipeng. Estimation of China's provincial physical capital stock: 1952-2000 [J]. Economic Research, 2004(10):35-44
Zhang Baofa. Structural effect in economic growth [J]. Quantitative Economic and Technical Economic Research, 1997(11):33-35+49.
Wu Zhenni. Research on the impact of local environmental regulation on green total factor productivity and its decomposition factors [D]. Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, 2020.DOI:10.27721/d.cnki.gyzjc.2020.000055.
Li Guozhu. Econometric analysis of coordinated development of China's economic growth and environment [D]. Liaoning University, 2007.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Liuliu Zhang
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
