Assessing Ecological Impacts of Municipal Construction: A Comprehensive Modeling Framework with Indicator‑Based Validation

Abstract

This study investigates the ecological impacts of municipal public engineering construction on surrounding urban environments through a systematic modeling approach. It first analyzes the pollution mechanisms, categorized into three types: surface water and groundwater contamination, soil degradation, and tailings pond pollution. Based on these mechanisms, a hierarchical indicator system is developed, comprising primary indicators (geological, population, surface, water environment, and biodiversity pressures) and secondary indicators (including collapse, landslide, subsidence, per capita water resources, water quality, soil‑water coordination, and land use). These indicators are further classified into three categories to construct sub‑models for geological, biodiversity, and soil erosion impacts, which are then integrated into a comprehensive assessment model. Empirical results demonstrate high reliability and predictive accuracy of the proposed model. The findings suggest that strengthening environmental protection guidance and reducing tailings ponds are key strategies for mitigating the negative externalities of municipal engineering projects.