Spatiotemporal Evolution and Land Disturbance Analysis of Ecological Carbon Sinks in the Yangtze River Delta

Abstract

Ecological carbon sinks are vital for climate adaptation and carbon neutrality, yet their integration into national plans is hindered by challenges in identifying social attributes and boundaries. This study develops a Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP)-based model and a land disturbance framework for the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity ("rich south, scarce north"; "high west, low east"). Of the 49.3 Mt CO2 total increment, ecological protection contributed 91%, cropland management (dominated by agricultural activities) accounting for over 83%. Notably, carbon degradation (-1.03 Mt CO2) occurred in regions remaining as forest land. These findings underscore that for megacity clusters, strengthening the boundary determination of carbon sink projects is essential to identify such dynamic incremental space available for inclusion in carbon neutrality initiatives.