Application of Regression Analyses and Marginal Analyses for Assessing the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Pandemic Mitigation Measures in Bulgaria

Abstract

Regression analysis is a popular method for determining multiple variables' relationships. We can use it to quantify this dependence between economic measures and the harmful effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, we can predict change in future periods. The problem with applying the method is the development of hypotheses about the dependence and accuracy of the data. This problem is discussed in this study, as one of the examples we have given is the "real" level of unemployment and the fastened digitalisation of society. On the other hand, we have the definition of the positive and negative effects of dependent variables on measures that are independent variables. We apply marginal analysis to measure the positive effect and determine when a measure is ineffective. The aim and logic of this study are to reduce the "falsification" of the scientific product so that it is based on objective facts and events and not on the feelings and interpretations of the researcher.